KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

56%

44%

37%

16%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.6¢Risks 43.60u

ICONNO 56.4¢Risks 56.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.40u · ICON −56.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	40.1%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	48.0%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	5.4%	12.4%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	42.3%	3.1%	4.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	39.2%	74.6%	18.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	27.0%	49.2%	24.5%	—	21.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	39.7%	30.9%	14.5%	—	24.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	0.0%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	33.8%	25.1%	5.6%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	31.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	32.2%	29.1%	4.7%	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	26.4%	31.8%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	27.4%	33.0%	8.3%	—	27.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	33.5%	26.1%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	24.7%	30.4%	9.0%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	24.1%	26.5%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	25.9%	27.6%	15.1%	0.0%	29.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	36.5%	27.1%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	39.2%	24.7%	11.4%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	33.6%	24.0%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	28.0%	25.1%	8.5%	0.0%	14.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	30.4%	20.8%	8.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	32.0%	21.7%	7.1%	15.9%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	32.5%	24.8%	6.4%	—	15.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	22.0%	29.5%	5.3%	15.7%	16.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	30.0%	26.5%	5.4%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	34.5%	30.5%	10.8%	28.0%	25.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	36.6%	6.0%	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	78.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	77.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	76.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗