KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

56%

44%

37%

16%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.6¢Risks 43.60u

ICONNO 56.4¢Risks 56.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.40u · ICON −56.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:14+00:00	67.2%	57.1%	58.5%	37.5%	61.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	67.2%	57.1%	58.5%	37.5%	61.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	67.2%	57.1%	58.5%	37.5%	61.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	67.2%	57.1%	59.3%	37.5%	61.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	67.2%	57.1%	59.3%	37.5%	61.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	67.2%	57.1%	59.3%	37.5%	61.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	47.0%	57.1%	59.3%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	47.0%	57.1%	59.3%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	47.0%	57.1%	59.3%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	47.0%	57.1%	59.3%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	47.0%	57.1%	59.3%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	47.0%	57.1%	56.8%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	47.0%	57.1%	56.8%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	47.0%	57.1%	56.8%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	46.3%	57.1%	56.8%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	46.3%	57.1%	56.8%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	46.3%	57.1%	56.8%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:06+00:00	46.3%	57.1%	56.8%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	46.3%	57.1%	56.8%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	46.3%	57.1%	60.1%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	46.3%	57.1%	60.1%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	46.3%	57.1%	60.1%	38.6%	52.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00	70.0%	57.1%	60.1%	43.8%	58.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	70.0%	57.1%	60.1%	43.8%	58.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	70.0%	57.1%	60.1%	43.8%	58.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	70.0%	57.1%	60.1%	43.8%	58.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	70.0%	57.1%	60.1%	43.8%	58.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:17+00:00	70.0%	57.1%	58.7%	43.8%	58.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	70.0%	80.9%	58.7%	43.8%	58.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	70.0%	80.9%	58.7%	43.8%	58.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	58.0%	80.9%	58.7%	43.8%	59.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	58.0%	80.9%	58.7%	43.8%	59.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:05+00:00	54.0%	84.1%	51.9%	39.8%	54.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	54.0%	84.1%	50.0%	39.8%	54.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	54.0%	84.1%	50.0%	39.8%	54.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	54.0%	84.1%	50.0%	39.8%	54.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	62.0%	84.1%	50.0%	39.8%	46.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	62.0%	84.1%	50.0%	39.8%	46.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	62.0%	84.1%	50.0%	39.8%	46.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	62.0%	84.1%	50.0%	39.8%	46.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	62.0%	84.1%	50.0%	39.8%	46.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	62.0%	82.0%	43.6%	39.8%	46.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	62.0%	82.0%	43.6%	39.8%	46.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	62.0%	82.0%	43.6%	39.8%	46.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	66.1%	82.0%	43.6%	39.7%	46.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	66.1%	82.0%	43.6%	39.7%	46.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	43.6%	39.7%	46.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	43.6%	39.7%	46.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	43.6%	39.7%	46.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	48.9%	39.7%	46.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	48.9%	39.7%	46.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	48.9%	39.7%	46.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	48.9%	39.7%	42.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	48.9%	39.7%	42.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	48.9%	39.7%	42.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	48.9%	39.7%	42.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	48.9%	46.8%	42.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	44.7%	46.8%	42.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:36+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	44.7%	46.8%	42.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	66.1%	84.1%	44.7%	46.8%	42.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	68.5%	84.1%	44.7%	46.8%	42.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	68.5%	84.1%	44.7%	46.8%	42.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	68.5%	84.1%	44.7%	46.8%	42.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	68.5%	84.1%	44.7%	46.8%	42.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	68.8%	91.1%	47.6%	43.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	68.8%	91.1%	47.6%	43.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	68.8%	91.1%	48.8%	43.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	68.8%	91.1%	48.8%	43.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	68.8%	91.1%	48.8%	43.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	68.8%	91.1%	48.8%	43.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	69.6%	91.1%	48.8%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	69.6%	91.1%	48.8%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	69.6%	91.1%	48.8%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	69.6%	91.1%	48.8%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	69.6%	91.1%	52.4%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	69.6%	91.2%	52.4%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	69.6%	91.2%	52.4%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	69.6%	91.2%	52.4%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	70.4%	91.2%	52.4%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	70.4%	91.2%	52.4%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	70.4%	91.2%	52.4%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:54+00:00	70.4%	91.2%	52.4%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	70.4%	91.2%	62.8%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	70.4%	91.2%	62.8%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	70.4%	91.2%	62.8%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	70.4%	91.2%	62.8%	45.5%	32.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	70.6%	91.2%	62.8%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	70.6%	91.2%	62.8%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	70.6%	91.2%	62.8%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	70.6%	91.2%	62.8%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	70.6%	89.2%	53.9%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	70.6%	89.2%	53.9%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	70.6%	89.2%	53.9%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	70.6%	89.2%	53.9%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	65.3%	88.8%	53.9%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	65.3%	88.8%	53.9%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	65.3%	75.8%	53.9%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	65.3%	75.8%	53.9%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	65.3%	75.8%	48.7%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	65.3%	75.8%	48.7%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	65.3%	75.8%	48.7%	41.3%	35.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	64.4%	75.8%	48.7%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	64.4%	75.8%	48.7%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	64.4%	75.8%	48.7%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	64.4%	75.8%	48.7%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	64.4%	75.8%	48.7%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	64.4%	75.8%	43.6%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	64.4%	75.8%	43.6%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	64.4%	75.8%	43.6%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	62.6%	75.8%	43.6%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	62.6%	75.8%	43.6%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	62.6%	75.8%	43.6%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	62.6%	75.8%	43.6%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00	62.6%	75.8%	43.6%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	62.6%	75.8%	58.9%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	62.6%	75.8%	58.9%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	62.6%	75.8%	58.9%	32.2%	25.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	62.9%	75.8%	58.9%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	62.9%	75.8%	58.9%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	62.9%	75.8%	58.9%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	62.9%	75.8%	58.9%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	62.9%	75.8%	58.9%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	62.9%	73.0%	50.0%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	62.9%	73.0%	50.0%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	62.9%	73.0%	50.0%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	54.0%	73.0%	50.0%	39.4%	21.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	54.1%	73.0%	50.0%	39.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	54.1%	71.1%	50.0%	39.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	54.1%	71.1%	50.0%	39.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	54.1%	71.1%	50.0%	39.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	54.1%	71.1%	41.8%	39.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	54.1%	71.1%	41.8%	39.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	54.1%	71.1%	41.8%	39.4%	22.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	57.1%	71.1%	41.8%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	57.1%	71.1%	41.8%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	57.1%	71.1%	41.8%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	57.1%	71.1%	41.8%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	57.1%	71.1%	41.8%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	57.1%	71.1%	44.5%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	57.1%	71.1%	44.5%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	57.1%	71.1%	44.5%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	56.1%	71.1%	44.5%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	56.1%	71.1%	44.5%	37.3%	16.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	56.1%	71.1%	44.5%	37.3%	16.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	71%	78.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	77.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	76.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	16%	73.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗