KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

56%

50%

42%

32%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

HRESNO 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.95u · HRES −53.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	34.1%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	41.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	3.8%	9.3%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	35.6%	2.1%	3.3%	—	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	32.3%	68.3%	14.0%	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	21.1%	41.7%	18.9%	—	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	32.3%	24.2%	10.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	0.0%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	26.5%	18.9%	3.6%	—	17.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	23.9%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	24.8%	22.1%	2.9%	—	15.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	19.6%	24.2%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	20.3%	25.1%	5.3%	—	20.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	25.3%	19.0%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	17.7%	22.5%	5.6%	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	17.0%	19.0%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	18.3%	19.7%	9.8%	0.0%	21.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	27.1%	19.0%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	29.2%	16.9%	7.0%	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	24.0%	16.1%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	19.1%	16.8%	4.8%	0.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	20.8%	13.2%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	21.7%	13.7%	3.7%	9.5%	13.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	21.9%	15.8%	3.2%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	13.4%	19.1%	2.6%	8.9%	9.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	19.1%	16.4%	2.5%	—	11.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	22.2%	19.1%	5.5%	17.2%	15.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	23.6%	2.7%	—	5.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	60%	78.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	78.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	77.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	76.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	74.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗