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KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
60%
ICON
56%
WN2
50%
EPS
42%
HRES
32%
Consensus
47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.05u
VS
HRESNO 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.95u · HRES −53.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.9% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 41.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.2% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00ICON: 59.5% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00ICON: 56.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:0010-14 02:5910-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:0065.2%71.9%69.2%53.1%59.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:0065.2%71.9%69.2%53.1%59.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:0065.2%71.9%69.2%53.1%59.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:0065.2%71.9%69.2%53.1%59.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:0065.2%71.9%69.2%53.1%59.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:0065.2%71.9%69.2%53.1%59.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:0065.4%71.9%69.2%53.1%56.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:0065.4%71.9%69.2%53.1%56.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:0065.4%71.9%69.2%53.1%56.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:0065.4%71.9%69.2%53.1%56.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:0065.4%71.9%69.2%31.8%56.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:0065.4%41.7%50.0%31.8%56.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:0065.4%41.7%50.0%31.8%56.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:0065.4%41.7%50.0%31.8%56.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:0059.7%41.7%50.0%31.8%56.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:0060.2%41.7%50.0%31.9%56.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single60%78.9°F5.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
ICON56%78.6°F7.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%78.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending
WeatherNext 250%77.5°F4.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend46%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble42%76.8°F3.4°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES32%74.4°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗