KBHM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

74%

69%

37%

28%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

ICONNO 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.90u · ICON −48.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	13.2%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	3.9%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	5.5%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	2.8%	16.7%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	38.2%	44.4%	1.1%	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	54.4%	31.7%	23.7%	—	34.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	45.4%	33.7%	15.5%	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	43.6%	38.2%	9.0%	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	0.9%	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	36.9%	45.0%	17.8%	—	37.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	29.6%	43.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	30.7%	41.3%	16.1%	—	37.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	33.4%	38.5%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	38.2%	31.4%	14.4%	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	38.8%	37.9%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	45.1%	32.1%	12.1%	—	29.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	40.1%	35.3%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	34.9%	30.3%	12.8%	—	22.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	37.5%	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	36.1%	32.1%	11.9%	—	27.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	33.6%	31.5%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	30.0%	33.1%	10.0%	0.0%	19.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	31.4%	30.4%	8.2%	—	21.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	35.4%	38.9%	10.0%	32.0%	37.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	36.1%	9.8%	—	21.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	74%	79.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	80.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	79.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	75.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗