KBHM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

74%

69%

37%

28%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

ICONNO 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.90u · ICON −48.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:54+00:00	77.1%	94.8%	72.2%	50.0%	53.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	77.1%	94.8%	78.2%	50.0%	53.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	77.1%	94.8%	78.2%	50.0%	53.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	77.1%	94.8%	78.2%	50.0%	53.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	77.1%	94.8%	78.2%	50.0%	53.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	79.3%	94.8%	78.2%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	79.3%	94.8%	78.2%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	79.3%	94.8%	78.2%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	79.3%	94.8%	78.2%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	79.3%	89.7%	77.1%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	79.3%	89.7%	77.1%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	79.3%	89.7%	77.1%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	79.3%	89.7%	77.1%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	77.3%	88.9%	77.1%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00	77.3%	88.9%	77.1%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	77.3%	78.0%	77.1%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	77.3%	78.0%	77.1%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	77.3%	78.0%	75.3%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	77.3%	78.0%	75.3%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	77.3%	78.0%	75.3%	43.8%	52.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	75.9%	78.0%	75.3%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	75.9%	78.0%	75.3%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	75.9%	78.0%	75.3%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	75.9%	78.0%	75.3%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	75.9%	78.0%	75.3%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	75.9%	78.0%	72.4%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	75.9%	78.0%	72.4%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	75.9%	78.0%	72.4%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	72.4%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	72.4%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	72.4%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	72.4%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	72.4%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	78.0%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	78.0%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	75.1%	78.0%	78.0%	40.3%	42.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	76.2%	78.0%	78.0%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	76.2%	78.0%	78.0%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	76.2%	78.0%	78.0%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	76.2%	78.0%	78.0%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	76.2%	78.0%	78.0%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	76.2%	76.6%	71.9%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	76.2%	76.6%	71.9%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	76.2%	76.6%	71.9%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	70.6%	76.6%	71.9%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	70.7%	76.6%	71.9%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	70.7%	74.4%	71.9%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	70.7%	74.4%	71.9%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	70.7%	74.4%	71.9%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	70.7%	74.4%	65.1%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	70.7%	74.4%	65.1%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	70.7%	74.4%	65.1%	45.1%	32.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	73.2%	74.4%	65.1%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	73.2%	74.4%	65.1%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	73.2%	74.4%	65.1%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	73.2%	74.4%	65.1%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	73.2%	74.4%	65.1%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	73.2%	74.4%	68.6%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	73.2%	74.4%	68.6%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	73.2%	74.4%	68.6%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	74.0%	74.4%	68.6%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	74.0%	74.4%	68.6%	36.6%	27.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	74.0%	74.4%	68.6%	36.6%	27.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	74%	79.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	80.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	79.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	75.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗