KBHM / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 21 · 06:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

22%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 13.5¢Risks 13.45u

ICONNO 86.5¢Risks 86.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.55u · ICON −86.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	0.3%	3.5%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	11.9%	15.3%	0.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	21.0%	8.2%	5.1%	—	9.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	14.2%	8.4%	2.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	12.3%	9.7%	1.0%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	0.0%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	8.3%	12.0%	2.5%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	5.4%	10.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	5.4%	9.4%	1.8%	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	6.0%	7.8%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	7.3%	5.0%	1.3%	—	6.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	7.0%	6.7%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	9.0%	4.6%	0.8%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	6.6%	5.1%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	4.7%	3.5%	0.8%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	5.0%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	4.2%	3.3%	0.5%	—	2.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	3.3%	2.9%	0.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	2.4%	2.9%	0.3%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.3%	2.2%	0.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.6%	3.3%	0.2%	2.1%	3.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	2.4%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.4%	2.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.5%	1.8%	0.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.7%	1.8%	0.1%	1.3%	1.0%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.7%	2.0%	0.0%	1.3%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	25%	79.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	80.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	78.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	77.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	74.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	79.0°F	1.3°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261021-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗