KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

79%

50%

47%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

ICONNO 33.7¢Risks 33.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.65u · ICON −33.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	55.6%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	60.9%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	7.0%	30.0%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	63.8%	36.9%	1.8%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	55.8%	48.5%	12.4%	—	40.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	48.5%	35.8%	22.2%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	42.9%	45.2%	20.6%	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	1.8%	48.4%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	36.1%	45.0%	15.2%	—	42.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	23.3%	44.9%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	36.3%	43.0%	19.6%	—	39.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	36.8%	36.8%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	39.1%	32.2%	16.6%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	45.3%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	47.1%	35.7%	12.1%	—	38.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	43.0%	37.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	39.8%	38.8%	15.7%	—	35.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	43.7%	36.5%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	42.4%	38.2%	18.3%	27.3%	47.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	35.7%	0.0%	—	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	80.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	80.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	80.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	77.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	47%	77.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗