KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

79%

50%

47%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.3¢Risks 66.35u

ICONNO 33.7¢Risks 33.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.65u · ICON −33.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00	64.4%	90.4%	73.1%	46.0%	54.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	64.4%	90.4%	80.5%	46.0%	54.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	64.4%	90.4%	80.5%	46.0%	54.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	64.4%	90.4%	80.5%	46.0%	54.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	76.6%	90.4%	80.5%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	76.6%	90.4%	80.5%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	76.6%	90.4%	80.5%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	76.6%	90.4%	80.5%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	76.6%	90.4%	80.5%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	76.6%	87.4%	85.7%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	76.6%	87.4%	85.7%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	76.6%	87.4%	85.7%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	71.3%	87.4%	85.7%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	71.3%	87.4%	85.8%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	71.3%	85.7%	85.8%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	71.3%	85.7%	85.8%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	71.3%	85.7%	85.8%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	71.3%	85.7%	81.4%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	71.3%	85.7%	81.4%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	71.3%	85.7%	81.4%	51.8%	54.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	76.7%	85.7%	81.4%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	76.7%	85.7%	81.4%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	76.7%	85.7%	81.4%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	76.7%	85.7%	81.4%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	76.7%	85.7%	81.4%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	76.7%	85.7%	83.7%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	76.7%	85.7%	83.7%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	76.7%	85.7%	83.7%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	78.8%	85.7%	83.7%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	78.8%	85.7%	83.7%	50.0%	47.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	78.8%	85.7%	83.7%	50.0%	47.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	80.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	80.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	80.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	77.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	47%	77.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗