KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

70%

67%

38%

21%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

ICONNO 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.80u · ICON −53.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	43.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	48.0%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	3.5%	19.4%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	50.0%	24.6%	0.7%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	41.3%	34.3%	6.4%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	33.7%	22.8%	12.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	28.1%	30.1%	11.1%	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	0.6%	32.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	21.9%	29.3%	7.4%	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	12.3%	28.8%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	21.4%	26.9%	9.7%	—	24.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	21.5%	21.5%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	23.0%	17.8%	7.6%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	27.6%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	28.7%	19.7%	4.9%	—	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	24.9%	20.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	21.9%	21.2%	6.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	24.5%	19.0%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	23.0%	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	27.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	—	17.5%	0.0%	—	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	81.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	81.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	78.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	76.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗