KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

70%

67%

38%

21%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

ICONNO 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.80u · ICON −53.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:17+00:00	77.8%	69.8%	66.2%	41.9%	27.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	77.8%	71.2%	66.2%	41.9%	27.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:19+00:00	77.8%	71.2%	66.2%	41.9%	27.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	57.0%	71.2%	66.0%	42.0%	27.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	57.0%	71.2%	66.0%	42.0%	27.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:06+00:00	57.0%	73.1%	66.0%	42.0%	27.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	57.0%	73.1%	66.0%	42.0%	27.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	57.0%	73.1%	62.4%	42.0%	27.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	57.0%	73.1%	62.4%	42.0%	27.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	57.0%	73.1%	62.4%	42.0%	27.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	57.0%	73.1%	62.4%	42.0%	27.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	71.3%	73.1%	62.4%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	71.3%	73.1%	62.4%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	71.3%	73.1%	62.4%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	71.3%	73.1%	62.4%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	71.3%	73.1%	63.1%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	71.2%	73.1%	63.1%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	71.2%	73.1%	63.1%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	59.7%	73.1%	63.1%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	59.7%	73.1%	63.1%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	59.7%	73.1%	63.1%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	59.7%	73.1%	63.1%	46.9%	67.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	61.5%	40.4%	43.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	62.4%	40.4%	43.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	62.4%	40.4%	43.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	62.4%	40.4%	43.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	62.4%	40.4%	43.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	62.4%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	62.4%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	62.4%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	50.0%	88.1%	62.4%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	62.6%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	62.6%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	62.6%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	62.6%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	47.4%	83.0%	62.6%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00	47.4%	83.0%	62.6%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	62.6%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	62.6%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	58.5%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	58.5%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	58.5%	34.5%	34.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	58.5%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	58.5%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	58.5%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	58.5%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	58.5%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	53.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	53.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	48.3%	66.8%	53.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	53.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	53.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	53.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	47.4%	66.8%	53.2%	30.9%	37.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00	62.9%	60.9%	65.1%	32.7%	28.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	62.9%	60.9%	65.1%	32.7%	28.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	62.9%	60.9%	74.4%	32.7%	28.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	62.9%	60.9%	74.4%	32.7%	28.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	62.9%	60.9%	74.4%	32.7%	28.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	67.2%	60.9%	74.4%	32.7%	20.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	67.2%	60.9%	74.4%	32.7%	20.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	67.2%	60.9%	74.4%	32.7%	20.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	67.2%	60.9%	74.4%	32.7%	20.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	67.2%	71.6%	69.7%	38.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	67.2%	71.6%	69.7%	38.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	67.2%	71.6%	69.7%	38.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	67.2%	71.6%	69.7%	38.5%	20.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	67.2%	71.6%	69.8%	38.5%	20.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	81.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	81.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	78.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	76.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗