KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

56%

53%

36%

24%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.9¢Risks 47.95u

ICONNO 52.0¢Risks 52.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.05u · ICON −52.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	37.0%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	41.6%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	2.4%	15.1%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	43.0%	19.4%	0.4%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	34.3%	27.9%	4.4%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	27.0%	17.4%	9.0%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	21.8%	23.6%	7.8%	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.3%	25.6%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	16.2%	22.5%	4.9%	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	8.5%	22.0%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	15.6%	20.2%	6.5%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	15.5%	15.5%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	16.6%	12.4%	4.8%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	20.3%	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	21.0%	13.6%	2.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	17.7%	14.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	15.1%	14.5%	3.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	16.9%	12.7%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	15.5%	13.1%	4.2%	7.7%	19.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	11.2%	0.0%	—	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	83.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	80.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	80.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	78.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	73.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗