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KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
72%
EPS
56%
WN2
53%
HRES
36%
ICON
24%
Consensus
54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 47.9¢Risks 47.95u
VS
ICONNO 52.0¢Risks 52.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.05u · ICON −52.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00AIFS Single: 72.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00IFS HRES: 35.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00ICON: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:0072.1%55.9%53.0%35.8%23.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:0072.1%55.9%53.0%35.8%23.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:0072.1%55.9%53.0%35.8%23.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:0072.1%55.9%53.0%35.8%23.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:0072.1%55.9%53.0%35.8%23.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single72%83.8°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble56%80.9°F2.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%80.9°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS HRES36%78.2°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON24%73.4°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗