KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

42%

34%

31%

28%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.3¢Risks 44.30u

HRESNO 55.7¢Risks 55.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +55.70u · HRES −55.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	28.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	31.3%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	1.6%	11.4%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	36.2%	14.9%	0.2%	—	20.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	27.9%	22.1%	2.9%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	21.1%	12.9%	6.3%	—	20.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	16.4%	17.9%	5.3%	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	0.2%	19.5%	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	11.6%	16.8%	3.1%	—	15.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	5.6%	16.2%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	10.9%	14.6%	4.1%	—	12.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	10.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	11.5%	8.3%	2.9%	—	7.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	14.3%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	14.7%	9.0%	1.6%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	11.9%	9.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	9.8%	9.4%	2.1%	—	8.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	11.1%	8.0%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	9.9%	8.1%	2.3%	4.5%	12.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	6.7%	0.0%	—	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	61%	82.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	79.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	31%	78.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	78.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗