KBHM / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

32%

31%

15%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.6¢Risks 21.60u

ICONNO 78.4¢Risks 78.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.40u · ICON −78.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	25.9%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	29.5%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	1.0%	8.5%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	29.8%	11.2%	0.1%	—	16.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	22.1%	17.0%	1.9%	—	12.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	16.0%	9.3%	4.2%	—	15.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	11.9%	13.1%	3.4%	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.1%	14.4%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	12.0%	1.9%	—	10.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	3.6%	11.5%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	7.3%	10.1%	2.5%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	7.1%	7.1%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	7.6%	5.3%	1.7%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	9.6%	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	9.8%	5.6%	0.8%	—	6.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	7.6%	5.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	6.1%	5.8%	1.1%	—	4.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	6.8%	4.7%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	5.9%	4.7%	1.1%	2.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	3.8%	0.0%	—	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	38%	81.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	81.1°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	78.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	76.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗