KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

88%

81%

56%

47%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.2¢Risks 69.15u

HRESNO 30.9¢Risks 30.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.85u · HRES −30.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	28.8%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	4.8%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	6.5%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	8.8%	52.0%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	53.5%	54.2%	3.6%	—	56.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	40.6%	50.0%	31.0%	—	48.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	22.8%	49.2%	22.8%	—	44.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	44.5%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	42.9%	47.6%	26.8%	—	42.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	1.0%	44.3%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	33.8%	47.5%	19.5%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	28.1%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	49.1%	53.5%	22.8%	—	40.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	42.0%	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	40.9%	55.5%	20.9%	—	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	49.0%	57.5%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	46.1%	60.6%	20.3%	38.5%	43.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	60.9%	—	—	30.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	79.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	76.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗