KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

88%

81%

56%

47%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.2¢Risks 69.15u

HRESNO 30.9¢Risks 30.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.85u · HRES −30.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:27+00:00	75.1%	91.5%	85.9%	51.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	75.1%	91.5%	85.9%	51.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	75.1%	91.5%	85.9%	51.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	75.1%	91.5%	83.3%	51.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	75.1%	91.5%	83.3%	51.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	75.1%	91.5%	83.3%	51.6%	62.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	79.7%	91.5%	83.3%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	79.7%	91.5%	83.3%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	79.7%	91.5%	83.3%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	79.7%	91.5%	83.3%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	79.7%	91.5%	83.3%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	79.7%	91.5%	87.6%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	79.7%	91.5%	87.6%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	79.7%	91.5%	87.6%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	80.9%	91.5%	87.6%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	80.9%	91.5%	87.6%	46.8%	55.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	80.9%	91.5%	87.6%	46.8%	55.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	79.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	76.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗