KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

62%

50%

35%

28%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.0¢Risks 44.95u

HRESNO 55.0¢Risks 55.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.05u · HRES −55.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	15.9%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	3.1%	32.4%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	33.0%	33.6%	1.0%	—	35.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	21.5%	29.1%	14.8%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	9.3%	27.7%	9.3%	—	23.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	23.5%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	21.8%	25.5%	11.1%	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	0.2%	22.4%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	14.8%	24.5%	6.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	11.1%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	24.8%	28.4%	8.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	19.0%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	17.8%	28.9%	6.6%	—	14.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	23.1%	30.1%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	20.3%	32.1%	5.9%	15.3%	18.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	31.7%	—	—	10.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	80.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	80.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	79.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	35%	77.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗