KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

44%

36%

17%

12%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 28.6¢Risks 28.60u

ICONNO 71.4¢Risks 71.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +71.40u · ICON −71.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	9.8%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	1.0%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	1.4%	21.3%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	21.4%	21.9%	0.4%	—	23.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	12.4%	17.9%	7.9%	—	17.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	4.4%	16.4%	4.4%	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	13.2%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	11.9%	14.5%	5.3%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	0.0%	12.2%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	7.1%	13.4%	2.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	4.9%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	13.1%	15.6%	3.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	9.2%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	8.3%	15.4%	2.5%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	11.3%	15.9%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	9.4%	17.1%	2.0%	6.5%	8.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	4.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	45%	81.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	80.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	80.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	77.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗