KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

44%

36%

17%

12%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 28.6¢Risks 28.60u

ICONNO 71.4¢Risks 71.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +71.40u · ICON −71.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	54.2%	51.5%	63.8%	26.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	54.2%	51.5%	63.8%	26.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	54.2%	52.8%	63.8%	26.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	54.2%	52.8%	63.8%	26.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	54.2%	52.8%	63.8%	26.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	54.2%	52.8%	59.3%	26.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	54.2%	52.8%	59.3%	26.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	54.2%	52.8%	59.3%	26.2%	19.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	45.8%	52.8%	59.3%	26.2%	50.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	45.8%	52.8%	59.3%	26.2%	50.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	45.8%	52.8%	59.3%	26.2%	50.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	45.8%	52.8%	59.3%	26.2%	50.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00	45.8%	52.8%	59.3%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	45.8%	52.8%	57.0%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:36+00:00	45.8%	52.8%	57.0%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	45.8%	52.8%	57.0%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	44.5%	52.8%	57.0%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	44.5%	52.8%	57.0%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	44.5%	52.8%	57.0%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	44.5%	52.8%	57.0%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	44.5%	52.8%	57.0%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	44.5%	52.8%	59.3%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	44.5%	52.8%	59.3%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	44.5%	52.8%	59.3%	27.3%	50.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:25+00:00	43.4%	52.8%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	43.4%	52.8%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	43.4%	52.8%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	43.4%	52.8%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	43.4%	52.8%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	43.4%	48.5%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	43.4%	48.5%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	43.4%	48.5%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	49.3%	48.5%	59.3%	26.0%	35.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	49.3%	48.5%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	49.3%	48.5%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	49.3%	48.5%	59.3%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	49.3%	48.5%	55.9%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	49.3%	48.5%	55.9%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	49.3%	48.5%	55.9%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	49.3%	48.5%	55.9%	25.7%	35.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	44.9%	48.5%	55.9%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	44.9%	48.5%	55.9%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	44.9%	48.5%	55.9%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	44.9%	48.5%	55.9%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	44.9%	48.5%	48.3%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	44.9%	48.5%	48.3%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	44.9%	48.5%	48.3%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	44.9%	48.5%	48.3%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	48.5%	48.5%	48.3%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	48.5%	48.5%	48.3%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	48.5%	48.5%	48.3%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:56+00:00	48.5%	48.5%	48.3%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	48.5%	48.5%	51.7%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	48.5%	48.5%	51.7%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	48.5%	48.5%	51.7%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	48.5%	48.5%	51.7%	22.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	42.8%	48.5%	51.7%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	42.8%	48.5%	51.7%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	42.8%	48.5%	51.7%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	42.8%	48.5%	51.7%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	42.8%	48.3%	43.2%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	42.8%	48.3%	43.2%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	42.8%	48.3%	43.2%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	42.8%	48.3%	43.2%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	40.4%	48.3%	43.2%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:43+00:00	40.4%	48.3%	43.2%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	40.4%	29.4%	43.2%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	40.4%	29.4%	43.2%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	40.4%	29.4%	42.3%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	40.4%	29.4%	42.3%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	40.4%	29.4%	42.3%	21.3%	30.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	38.9%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	38.9%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	38.9%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	38.9%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	38.9%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	38.9%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	38.9%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	38.9%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	34.3%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	34.3%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	34.3%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	34.3%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:42+00:00	34.3%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	34.3%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	34.3%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	34.3%	29.4%	42.3%	18.0%	24.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	36.4%	29.4%	42.3%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	36.4%	29.4%	42.3%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	36.4%	29.4%	42.3%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	36.4%	29.4%	42.3%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	36.4%	29.4%	42.3%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	36.4%	26.6%	39.4%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	36.4%	26.6%	39.4%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	36.4%	26.6%	39.4%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	33.9%	26.6%	39.4%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	33.9%	26.6%	39.4%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	33.9%	23.9%	39.4%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	33.9%	23.9%	39.4%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	33.9%	23.9%	39.4%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	33.9%	23.9%	35.3%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	33.9%	23.9%	35.3%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	33.9%	23.9%	35.3%	16.9%	24.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	39.7%	23.9%	35.3%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	39.7%	23.9%	35.3%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	39.7%	23.9%	35.3%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	39.7%	23.9%	35.3%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	39.7%	23.9%	35.3%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	39.7%	23.9%	42.5%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	39.7%	23.9%	42.5%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	39.7%	23.9%	42.5%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	41.4%	23.9%	42.5%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	41.4%	23.9%	42.5%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	41.4%	23.9%	42.5%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00	41.4%	23.9%	42.5%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	41.4%	23.9%	42.5%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	41.4%	23.9%	50.0%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	41.4%	23.9%	50.0%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	41.4%	23.9%	50.0%	14.0%	18.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	44.4%	23.9%	50.0%	14.0%	11.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	44.4%	23.9%	50.0%	14.0%	11.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	44.4%	23.9%	50.0%	14.0%	11.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	44.4%	23.9%	50.0%	14.0%	11.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	44.4%	36.1%	45.3%	17.3%	11.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	44.4%	36.1%	45.3%	17.3%	11.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	44.4%	36.1%	45.3%	17.3%	11.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	44.4%	36.1%	45.3%	17.3%	11.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	44.4%	36.1%	45.3%	17.3%	11.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	45%	81.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	80.9°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	80.6°F	2.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	77.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	76.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗