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KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:13 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
21%
WN2
9%
AIFS
6%
HRES
3%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.8¢Risks 10.85u
VS
EPSNO 89.1¢Risks 89.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.15u · EPS −89.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-14 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.1%————0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.0%————1.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:001.5%————1.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:007.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.4%————1.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:000.9%————3.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:003.3%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:009.3%————2.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:009.8%————2.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:005.3%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:008.1%————6.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:009.8%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0016.1%————4.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0015.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0011.2%————5.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:006.5%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:008.6%————5.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:006.6%—0.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:005.5%—0.7%——2.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:004.7%—13.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:005.0%————1.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:005.2%—4.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:009.0%—0.0%——2.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:004.6%—1.7%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:006.9%—0.0%——1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:004.2%—0.9%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:003.8%0.0%1.6%——1.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.0%—2.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:001.7%1.4%1.4%0.0%—1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:001.4%—1.5%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:001.1%0.4%0.9%0.2%—0.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.6%—1.0%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.0%0.1%0.6%0.1%—0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.1%—0.4%——0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.3%0.4%0.1%—0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.2%——0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%0.3%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.3%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.3%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.2%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.2%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.1%——0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON21%81.6°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
NWS forecast10%82.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%82.7°F5.1°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single6%80.7°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES3%77.6°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
National Blend2%82.0°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%81.7°F2.8°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 22:38 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Birmingham · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗