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KBHM / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:13 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
21%
WN2
9%
AIFS
6%
HRES
3%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.8¢Risks 10.85u
VS
EPSNO 89.1¢Risks 89.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.15u · EPS −89.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.1% · 2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00ICON: 21.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:0010-16 22:3810-17 05:2810-17 06:13
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:006.7%0.3%9.1%3.3%21.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:006.3%0.3%8.2%3.3%21.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:006.3%0.3%9.1%3.3%21.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:006.3%0.3%9.1%3.3%21.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON21%81.6°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
NWS forecast10%82.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 29%82.7°F5.1°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single6%80.7°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES3%77.6°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
National Blend2%82.0°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%81.7°F2.8°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 22:38 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Birmingham · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗