KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

79%

75%

35%

34%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.0¢Risks 65.95u

ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.05u · ICON −34.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	76.4%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	3.0%	65.8%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	14.1%	63.1%	5.6%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	37.1%	46.4%	33.0%	—	34.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	23.9%	46.2%	16.9%	—	28.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	17.9%	40.5%	14.0%	—	30.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	2.6%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	10.8%	45.8%	9.0%	—	23.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	7.5%	43.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	20.8%	43.9%	11.8%	26.9%	27.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	47.3%	—	—	22.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	79.4°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	77.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	72.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	72.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗