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KBHM / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
98%
WN2
79%
AIFS
75%
HRES
35%
ICON
34%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 66.0¢Risks 65.95u
VS
ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.05u · ICON −34.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 35.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00ICON: 30.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:00ICON: 30.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 30.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 30.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 30.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 34.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:29+00:0067.9%97.5%72.8%28.4%30.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0067.9%97.5%72.8%28.4%30.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0067.9%97.5%76.0%28.4%30.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0067.9%97.5%76.0%28.4%30.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0067.9%97.5%76.0%28.4%30.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0075.1%97.5%76.0%28.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0075.1%97.5%76.0%28.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0075.1%97.5%76.0%28.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0075.1%97.5%76.0%28.4%34.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:0075.1%97.9%79.0%35.2%34.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0075.1%97.9%79.0%35.2%34.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0075.1%97.9%79.0%35.2%34.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0075.1%97.9%79.0%35.2%34.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0075.1%97.9%79.0%35.2%34.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble98%79.4°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 279%77.5°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend77%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single75%77.6°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES35%72.6°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON34%72.5°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗