KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

66%

65%

47%

33%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.4¢Risks 57.40u

HRESNO 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.60u · HRES −42.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	47.0%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	48.7%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	1.3%	41.9%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	29.2%	36.2%	2.3%	—	29.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	27.9%	26.6%	8.2%	—	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	20.0%	27.0%	15.5%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	26.8%	40.5%	17.9%	33.7%	28.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	40.3%	—	—	24.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	76.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	76.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	47%	74.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗