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KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
82%
AIFS
66%
WN2
65%
ICON
47%
HRES
33%
Consensus
68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 57.4¢Risks 57.40u
VS
HRESNO 42.6¢Risks 42.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.60u · HRES −42.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 24.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:30+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:30+00:0058.1%71.8%61.8%24.3%45.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0058.1%71.8%61.8%24.3%45.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0058.1%71.8%63.4%24.3%45.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0058.1%71.8%63.4%24.3%45.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0058.1%71.8%63.4%24.3%45.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0065.7%71.8%63.4%24.3%47.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0065.7%71.8%63.4%24.3%47.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0065.7%71.8%63.4%24.3%47.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0065.7%71.8%63.4%24.3%47.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:0065.7%82.2%65.1%32.6%47.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0065.7%82.2%65.1%32.6%47.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0065.7%82.2%65.1%32.6%47.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0065.7%82.2%65.1%32.6%47.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0065.8%82.2%65.2%32.6%47.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble82%76.9°F2.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend78%77.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single66%76.5°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 265%76.1°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%75.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON47%74.1°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES33%71.9°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗