KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

26%

16%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.4¢Risks 29.35u

HRESNO 70.6¢Risks 70.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.65u · HRES −70.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	16.1%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	15.6%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	0.1%	11.1%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	5.4%	7.9%	0.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	4.6%	4.2%	0.6%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	2.3%	3.9%	1.5%	—	2.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	3.4%	7.5%	1.7%	5.3%	3.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	7.0%	—	—	2.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	80.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	76.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	74.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	66.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	69.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗