WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
54%
WN2
26%
AIFS
16%
ICON
7%
HRES
5%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 29.4¢Risks 29.35u
VS
HRESNO 70.6¢Risks 70.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.65u · HRES −70.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00IFS HRES: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00ICON: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:0016.1%54.1%25.6%4.6%7.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0016.1%54.1%25.6%4.6%7.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:0016.1%54.1%25.6%4.6%7.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:0016.1%54.1%25.6%4.6%7.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%81.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%80.8°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 226%76.9°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single16%74.8°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON7%66.0°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%69.6°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗