KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

EPSNO 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.17u · EPS −45.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	12.7%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	12.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.0%	8.2%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.8%	5.6%	0.1%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	3.1%	2.8%	0.4%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.5%	2.5%	0.9%	—	1.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	2.2%	5.1%	1.0%	3.4%	2.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	4.7%	—	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	16%	76.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	74.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	76.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗