KBHM / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

EPSNO 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.17u · EPS −45.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	12.2%	16.7%	15.4%	3.3%	6.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	12.2%	16.7%	15.4%	3.3%	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	12.2%	16.7%	15.4%	3.3%	6.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	12.2%	16.7%	15.4%	3.3%	6.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	18.3%	16.7%	15.4%	3.3%	5.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:45+00:00	18.3%	16.7%	15.4%	3.3%	5.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	18.3%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	5.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	18.3%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	5.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	18.3%	8.3%	12.4%	3.3%	5.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	18.3%	8.3%	12.4%	3.3%	5.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	18.3%	8.3%	12.4%	3.3%	5.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	11.2%	8.3%	12.4%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	11.2%	8.3%	12.4%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	11.2%	8.3%	12.4%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	11.2%	8.3%	12.4%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	11.2%	8.3%	12.4%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	11.2%	8.3%	14.1%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	11.2%	8.3%	14.1%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	11.2%	8.3%	14.1%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	14.1%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	14.1%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	14.1%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	14.1%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:43+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	14.1%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	17.4%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	17.4%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	17.4%	4.9%	29.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:04+00:00	13.0%	8.3%	17.4%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	13.0%	8.3%	17.4%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	13.0%	8.3%	17.4%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	13.0%	8.3%	17.4%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:09+00:00	13.0%	8.3%	17.4%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:49+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	14.2%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	14.2%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	13.0%	5.4%	14.2%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	11.8%	5.4%	14.2%	3.7%	18.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	11.8%	5.5%	14.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	14.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	14.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	14.2%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	12.8%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	12.8%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	12.8%	3.7%	17.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	12.8%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	12.8%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	12.8%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:01+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	12.8%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	12.8%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	11.5%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	11.5%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	11.8%	4.8%	11.5%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	13.7%	4.8%	11.5%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	13.7%	4.8%	11.5%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	13.7%	4.8%	11.5%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:31+00:00	13.7%	4.8%	11.5%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	13.7%	4.8%	11.5%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	13.7%	4.8%	12.4%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	13.7%	4.8%	12.4%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	13.7%	4.8%	12.4%	3.9%	13.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	15.6%	4.8%	12.4%	3.9%	11.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	15.6%	4.8%	12.4%	3.9%	11.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	15.6%	4.8%	12.4%	3.9%	11.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	15.6%	4.8%	12.4%	3.9%	11.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	15.6%	3.8%	9.4%	4.8%	11.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	15.6%	3.8%	9.4%	4.8%	11.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	15.6%	3.8%	9.4%	4.8%	11.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	15.6%	3.8%	9.4%	4.8%	11.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	15.5%	3.8%	9.4%	4.8%	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	16%	76.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	74.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	76.9°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗