KBHM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

57%

53%

52%

43%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 51.0¢Risks 25.52u

HRESNO 49.0¢Risks 24.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.48u · HRES −24.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	37.5%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	0.2%	16.7%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	20.4%	10.2%	0.9%	—	23.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	27.2%	41.3%	7.4%	39.9%	31.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	41.1%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	77%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	77.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	57%	77.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	76.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	52%	76.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	75.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗