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KBHM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
59%
AIFS
57%
EPS
53%
ICON
52%
HRES
43%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 51.0¢Risks 25.52u
VS
HRESNO 49.0¢Risks 24.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.48u · HRES −24.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:31+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 56.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 58.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:31+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 42.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00ICON: 49.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:31+00:00ICON: 49.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00ICON: 49.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00ICON: 49.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00ICON: 49.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 51.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:31+00:0057.6%50.0%59.3%32.1%49.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:0057.6%50.0%59.3%32.1%49.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:0057.6%50.0%58.5%32.1%49.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:0057.6%50.0%58.5%32.1%49.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0057.6%50.0%58.5%32.1%49.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:0056.6%50.0%58.5%32.1%51.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:0056.6%50.0%58.5%32.1%51.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:0056.6%50.0%58.5%32.1%51.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0056.6%50.0%58.5%32.1%51.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:0056.6%52.8%59.3%42.8%51.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0056.6%52.8%59.3%42.8%51.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:0056.6%52.8%59.3%42.8%51.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:0056.6%52.8%59.3%42.8%51.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:0056.6%52.8%59.3%42.8%51.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend77%79.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 259%77.6°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single57%77.4°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%77.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble53%76.7°F2.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON52%76.8°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES43%75.3°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗