KBHM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

29%

22%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.9¢Risks 21.85u

ICONNO 78.1¢Risks 78.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +78.15u · ICON −78.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	17.7%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	12.8%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.0%	5.0%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	6.3%	2.4%	0.1%	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	9.0%	17.0%	1.5%	16.1%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	16.5%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	78.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	77.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	77.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	71.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	64.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261026-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗