KBHM / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

22%

20%

17%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.0¢Risks 15.00u

EPSNO 85.0¢Risks 85.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.00u · EPS −85.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:50+00:00	23.3%	4.9%	26.6%	6.1%	4.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:32+00:00	23.3%	4.9%	26.6%	6.1%	4.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	23.3%	4.9%	26.6%	6.1%	4.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:58+00:00	24.9%	4.9%	26.6%	6.1%	4.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:59+00:00	24.8%	4.9%	26.5%	6.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:28+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	26.5%	6.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	26.5%	6.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	26.5%	6.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	25.9%	6.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	25.9%	6.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:57+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	25.9%	6.0%	4.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	25.9%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	25.9%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	25.9%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	25.9%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	25.9%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	22.8%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:50+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	22.8%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	22.8%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:46+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	22.8%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:55+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	22.8%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	22.8%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:32+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	22.8%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	22.8%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	22.2%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	22.2%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	24.8%	4.2%	22.2%	10.7%	30.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	22.4%	4.2%	22.2%	10.7%	25.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	22.4%	4.2%	22.2%	10.7%	25.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	22.4%	4.2%	22.2%	10.7%	25.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	22.4%	4.2%	22.2%	10.7%	25.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:32+00:00	22.4%	4.5%	20.2%	17.3%	25.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	22.4%	4.5%	20.2%	17.3%	25.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:52+00:00	22.4%	4.5%	20.2%	17.3%	25.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:01+00:00	22.4%	4.5%	20.2%	17.3%	25.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:14+00:00	22.3%	4.5%	20.2%	17.3%	25.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	76.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	77.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	77.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	75.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	76.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗