KBIL / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 11 · 02:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

83%

57%

38%

27%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.7¢Risks 63.65u

AIFSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.35u · AIFS −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	98.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	92.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	98.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	98.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	57.5%	—	—	99.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	90.4%	—	—	99.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	99.9%	48.6%	—	99.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.8%	42.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	90.3%	99.6%	100.0%	—	99.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	77.0%	62.5%	100.0%	—	97.8%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	41.1%	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	58.3%	99.0%	98.6%	—	91.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	54.3%	96.1%	—	—	88.1%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	57.8%	99.0%	94.1%	—	91.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	68.2%	87.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	99.9%	15.4%	99.3%	—	85.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	81.7%	50.9%	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	30.4%	94.6%	90.6%	—	84.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	28.2%	73.5%	—	—	78.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	76.5%	31.2%	97.5%	—	69.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	15.0%	34.5%	—	—	80.2%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	47.8%	34.1%	44.5%	—	88.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	70.4%	33.6%	12.9%	—	85.9%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	55.8%	37.4%	62.6%	92.0%	55.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	48.8%	32.5%	74.7%	—	61.9%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	48.8%	29.8%	25.6%	90.0%	55.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	32.5%	47.4%	82.6%	—	70.9%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	55.4%	35.6%	51.3%	79.0%	43.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	47.2%	27.6%	51.4%	—	28.8%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	70.7%	41.4%	83.7%	74.4%	22.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	85.6%	44.0%	70.2%	—	23.6%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	34.6%	43.7%	50.0%	8.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	14.1%	15.0%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	83.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.9980
WeatherNext 2	83%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.6856
IFS HRES	57%	69.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.3283
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 14:00	0.3181
National Blend	45%	67.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-10 06:00	0.1989
ICON	38%	67.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 12:00	0.1429
AIFS Single	27%	66.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 18:00	0.0751

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20260911-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 69°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗