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KBIL / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 11 · 02:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
83%
HRES
57%
ICON
38%
AIFS
27%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 63.7¢Risks 63.65u
VS
AIFSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.35u · AIFS −36.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-10T15:12:06+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-10T15:57:13+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-10T16:42:18+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-10T17:27:24+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-10T18:12:31+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-09-10T18:57:36+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-10T19:42:42+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-10T20:27:47+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-10T21:12:52+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-10T21:57:56+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-10T22:43:01+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-10T23:28:06+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-11T00:13:12+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-09-11T00:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-09-11T01:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-09-11T02:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T15:12:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T15:57:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T16:42:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T17:27:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T18:12:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T18:57:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T19:42:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T20:27:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T21:12:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T21:57:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T22:43:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-10T23:28:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-11T00:13:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-09-11T00:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-11T01:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-11T02:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-10T15:12:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-10T15:57:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.0% · 2026-09-10T16:42:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-09-10T17:27:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-09-10T18:12:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-09-10T18:57:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-09-10T19:42:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-09-10T20:27:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-09-10T21:12:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-09-10T21:57:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-09-10T22:43:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-10T23:28:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-11T00:13:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-11T00:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-11T01:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-09-11T02:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-09-10T15:12:06+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-09-10T15:57:13+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-09-10T16:42:18+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-09-10T17:27:24+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-09-10T18:12:31+00:00IFS HRES: 36.5% · 2026-09-10T18:57:36+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-10T19:42:42+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-10T20:27:47+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-10T21:12:52+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-10T21:57:56+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-10T22:43:01+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-10T23:28:06+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-11T00:13:12+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-11T00:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-11T01:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-09-11T02:28:30+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-09-10T15:12:06+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-09-10T15:57:13+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T16:42:18+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T17:27:24+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T18:12:31+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T18:57:36+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T19:42:42+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T20:27:47+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T21:12:52+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T21:57:56+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T22:43:01+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-10T23:28:06+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-11T00:13:12+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-11T00:58:19+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-11T01:43:25+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-09-11T02:28:30+00:0009-10 15:1209-10 21:1209-11 02:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-11T02:28:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-10T15:12:06+00:0035.9%99.9%85.0%36.5%32.6%
2026-09-10T15:57:13+00:0035.9%99.9%85.0%36.5%32.6%
2026-09-10T16:42:18+00:0035.9%99.9%85.0%36.5%37.8%
2026-09-10T17:27:24+00:0035.9%99.9%89.8%36.5%37.8%
2026-09-10T18:12:31+00:0035.9%99.9%89.8%36.5%37.8%
2026-09-10T18:57:36+00:0035.9%99.9%89.8%36.5%37.8%
2026-09-10T19:42:42+00:0033.3%99.9%89.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-10T20:27:47+00:0033.3%99.9%89.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-10T21:12:52+00:0033.3%99.9%89.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-10T21:57:56+00:0033.3%99.9%89.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-10T22:43:01+00:0033.3%99.9%89.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-10T23:28:06+00:0033.3%99.9%82.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-11T00:13:12+00:0033.3%99.9%82.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-11T00:58:19+00:0033.3%100.0%82.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-11T01:43:25+00:0027.4%99.9%82.8%57.3%37.8%
2026-09-11T02:28:30+00:0027.4%99.9%82.8%57.3%37.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%83.6°F4.7°F2026-09-10 00:000.9980
WeatherNext 283%71.7°F3.4°F2026-09-10 12:000.6856
IFS HRES57%69.2°F3.8°F2026-09-10 12:000.3283
NWS forecast56%69.0°F3.1°F2026-09-10 14:000.3181
National Blend45%67.9°F4.4°F2026-09-10 06:000.1989
ICON38%67.4°F3.5°F2026-09-10 12:000.1429
AIFS Single27%66.0°F4.2°F2026-09-10 18:000.0751

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20260911-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 10 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 69°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗