KBIL / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

67%

20%

19%

16%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.35u · ICON −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	96.3%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	88.3%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	90.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	97.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	45.0%	—	—	99.1%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	83.6%	—	—	99.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	99.6%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	99.6%	34.9%	—	97.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	28.5%	100.0%	100.0%	—	98.6%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	82.1%	98.9%	99.8%	—	99.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.8%	63.3%	46.8%	99.9%	—	94.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	26.3%	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	41.7%	97.2%	96.2%	—	82.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	37.4%	90.8%	—	—	77.4%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	40.5%	97.1%	86.9%	—	82.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	50.9%	75.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	99.4%	7.0%	97.7%	—	72.6%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	66.5%	32.6%	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	15.9%	86.9%	79.7%	—	70.4%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	14.0%	55.0%	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	58.2%	15.7%	92.6%	—	50.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	5.8%	17.6%	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	27.3%	16.9%	24.7%	—	74.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	48.9%	16.1%	4.5%	—	69.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	33.1%	18.3%	39.6%	79.3%	33.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	26.3%	14.5%	52.4%	—	38.1%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	25.6%	12.4%	10.0%	74.4%	30.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	13.5%	23.8%	61.5%	—	46.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	29.5%	14.9%	26.2%	55.4%	20.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	22.1%	9.8%	25.3%	—	10.4%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	42.8%	17.2%	60.1%	47.1%	6.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	61.9%	18.1%	41.0%	—	7.0%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	11.7%	17.1%	21.4%	1.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	2.8%	3.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	83.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.9960
WeatherNext 2	67%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.4502
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 02:00	0.3181
National Blend	32%	67.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-10 06:00	0.1011
AIFS Single	20%	67.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 06:00	0.0400
IFS HRES	19%	67.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.0365
ICON	16%	66.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.0240

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20260911-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 08 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗