KBIL / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 10 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

67%

20%

19%

16%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.35u · ICON −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T14:26:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-08T14:54:43+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	91.0%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T15:39:49+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	91.0%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T15:49:13+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	91.0%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T16:00:11+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	91.0%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T16:45:17+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	91.0%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T17:06:46+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	89.1%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T17:20:31+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	89.1%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T18:05:37+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	89.1%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T18:50:42+00:00	32.8%	100.0%	89.1%	84.3%	16.3%
2026-09-08T19:35:47+00:00	30.4%	100.0%	89.1%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-08T20:20:52+00:00	30.4%	100.0%	89.1%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-08T21:05:57+00:00	30.4%	100.0%	89.1%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-08T21:51:02+00:00	30.4%	100.0%	89.1%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-08T22:36:07+00:00	30.4%	100.0%	89.1%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-08T23:21:13+00:00	30.4%	100.0%	83.8%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T00:06:18+00:00	30.4%	100.0%	83.8%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T00:51:24+00:00	30.4%	100.0%	83.8%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T01:36:30+00:00	28.1%	100.0%	83.8%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T02:21:35+00:00	28.1%	100.0%	83.8%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T03:06:43+00:00	28.1%	100.0%	83.8%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T03:51:49+00:00	28.1%	100.0%	83.8%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T04:36:53+00:00	28.1%	100.0%	83.8%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T05:21:58+00:00	28.1%	100.0%	81.0%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T06:07:04+00:00	28.1%	100.0%	81.0%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T06:52:08+00:00	28.1%	100.0%	81.0%	49.1%	61.2%
2026-09-09T07:37:26+00:00	29.6%	100.0%	81.0%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T08:22:32+00:00	29.6%	100.0%	81.0%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T09:07:35+00:00	29.6%	100.0%	81.0%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T09:52:40+00:00	29.6%	100.0%	81.0%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T10:37:44+00:00	29.6%	100.0%	81.0%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T11:22:50+00:00	29.6%	100.0%	75.4%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T12:07:56+00:00	29.6%	100.0%	75.4%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T12:53:01+00:00	29.6%	100.0%	75.4%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T13:38:07+00:00	24.3%	100.0%	75.4%	49.0%	21.4%
2026-09-09T14:23:22+00:00	24.2%	100.0%	75.4%	49.0%	21.3%
2026-09-09T15:08:31+00:00	24.2%	100.0%	75.4%	49.0%	21.3%
2026-09-09T15:53:37+00:00	24.2%	100.0%	75.4%	49.0%	21.3%
2026-09-09T16:38:42+00:00	24.2%	100.0%	75.4%	49.0%	27.5%
2026-09-09T17:23:47+00:00	24.2%	100.0%	80.5%	49.0%	27.5%
2026-09-09T18:08:54+00:00	24.2%	100.0%	80.5%	49.0%	27.5%
2026-09-09T18:53:59+00:00	24.2%	100.0%	80.5%	49.0%	27.5%
2026-09-09T19:39:10+00:00	18.7%	100.0%	80.5%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-09T20:24:15+00:00	18.7%	100.0%	80.5%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-09T21:09:20+00:00	18.7%	100.0%	80.5%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-09T21:54:26+00:00	18.7%	100.0%	80.5%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-09T22:39:33+00:00	18.7%	100.0%	80.5%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-09T23:24:38+00:00	18.7%	100.0%	72.6%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-10T00:09:44+00:00	18.7%	100.0%	72.6%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-10T00:54:51+00:00	18.7%	100.0%	72.6%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-10T01:39:58+00:00	12.6%	100.0%	72.6%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-10T02:25:05+00:00	12.6%	99.9%	72.6%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-10T03:10:16+00:00	12.6%	99.9%	72.6%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-10T03:55:21+00:00	12.6%	99.9%	72.6%	9.7%	27.5%
2026-09-10T04:40:27+00:00	12.6%	99.9%	72.6%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-09-10T05:25:32+00:00	12.6%	99.9%	74.5%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-09-10T06:10:38+00:00	12.6%	99.9%	74.5%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-09-10T06:55:43+00:00	12.6%	99.9%	74.5%	9.7%	15.5%
2026-09-10T07:40:56+00:00	11.5%	99.9%	74.5%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T08:26:03+00:00	11.5%	99.9%	74.5%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T09:11:08+00:00	11.5%	99.9%	74.5%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T09:56:12+00:00	11.5%	99.9%	74.5%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T10:41:16+00:00	11.5%	99.9%	74.5%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T11:26:24+00:00	11.5%	99.8%	67.1%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T12:11:29+00:00	11.5%	99.8%	67.1%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T12:56:34+00:00	11.5%	99.8%	67.1%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T13:41:39+00:00	20.7%	99.8%	67.1%	19.1%	15.5%
2026-09-10T14:26:58+00:00	20.0%	99.8%	67.1%	19.1%	15.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	83.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.9960
WeatherNext 2	67%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.4502
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-10 02:00	0.3181
National Blend	32%	67.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-10 06:00	0.1011
AIFS Single	20%	67.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-10 06:00	0.0400
IFS HRES	19%	67.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.0365
ICON	16%	66.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-10 00:00	0.0240

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20260911-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 08 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗