KBIL / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 08 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

79%

72%

19%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

ICONNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.70u · ICON −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	82.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	85.0%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	33.0%	—	—	98.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	74.3%	—	—	99.2%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	100.0%	—	—	99.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	98.9%	23.0%	—	94.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	17.5%	99.9%	99.8%	—	96.7%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	70.4%	97.2%	99.4%	—	98.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	47.6%	31.6%	99.7%	—	88.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	14.8%	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	26.5%	93.2%	91.3%	—	70.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	22.6%	81.6%	—	—	62.6%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	24.8%	92.7%	75.2%	—	68.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	33.4%	58.9%	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	97.9%	2.6%	93.7%	—	55.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	48.1%	17.7%	—	—	55.7%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	6.8%	73.7%	63.4%	—	51.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	5.7%	35.3%	—	—	41.1%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	37.8%	6.4%	82.4%	—	30.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.8%	7.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	12.5%	6.6%	10.9%	—	54.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	27.6%	6.0%	1.2%	—	47.8%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.3%	6.8%	19.9%	59.2%	15.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.8%	4.8%	29.3%	—	18.3%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.0%	3.7%	2.8%	51.2%	13.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.0%	8.7%	36.1%	—	22.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.3%	4.3%	9.5%	29.5%	6.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.1%	2.3%	8.6%	—	2.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	18.2%	4.7%	31.8%	21.2%	1.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	32.5%	4.8%	16.2%	—	1.3%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.4%	4.1%	5.7%	0.2%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	—	—	Not retained	0.9980
WeatherNext 2	79%	—	—	Not retained	0.6194
IFS HRES	72%	—	—	Not retained	0.5127
NWS forecast	55%	—	—	Not retained	0.3036
National Blend	34%	—	—	Not retained	0.1136
AIFS Single	19%	—	—	Not retained	0.0346
ICON	7%	—	—	Not retained	0.0045

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20260911-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 73°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗