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KBIL / Fri Sep 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 08 · 14:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
79%
HRES
72%
AIFS
19%
ICON
7%
Consensus
67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u
VS
ICONNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.70u · ICON −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-08T03:38:25+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00AIFS Single: 37.8% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00AIFS Single: 18.7% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T03:38:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T03:38:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00IFS HRES: 37.7% · 2026-09-08T03:38:25+00:00IFS HRES: 37.7% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00IFS HRES: 37.7% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00IFS HRES: 37.7% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00IFS HRES: 37.7% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00IFS HRES: 71.6% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00ICON: 98.5% · 2026-09-08T03:38:25+00:00ICON: 98.5% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00ICON: 98.5% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00ICON: 98.5% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00ICON: 98.5% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:0009-08 03:3809-08 08:5409-08 14:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T03:38:25+00:006.8%99.9%74.0%37.7%98.5%
2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:006.8%99.9%74.0%37.7%98.5%
2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:006.8%99.9%74.0%37.7%98.5%
2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:006.8%99.9%74.0%37.7%98.5%
2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:006.8%99.9%74.0%37.7%98.5%
2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:0037.8%99.9%74.0%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:0037.8%99.9%74.0%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:0037.8%99.9%74.0%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:0037.8%99.9%74.0%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:0037.8%99.9%74.0%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:0037.8%99.9%78.7%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:0037.8%99.9%78.7%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:0037.8%99.9%78.7%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:0018.7%99.9%78.7%71.6%6.6%
2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:0018.6%99.9%78.7%71.6%6.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%——Not retained0.9980
WeatherNext 279%——Not retained0.6194
IFS HRES72%——Not retained0.5127
NWS forecast55%——Not retained0.3036
National Blend34%——Not retained0.1136
AIFS Single19%——Not retained0.0346
ICON7%——Not retained0.0045

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20260911-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 73°F · Fri Sep 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗