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KBIL / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 08 · 14:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
79%
EPS
57%
AIFS
52%
HRES
44%
ICON
4%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 41.4¢Risks 41.40u
VS
ICONNO 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.60u · ICON −58.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-08T03:38:26+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00AIFS Single: 52.5% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00AIFS Single: 52.5% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.5% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 52.5% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00AIFS Single: 52.5% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00AIFS Single: 52.5% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00AIFS Single: 52.5% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00AIFS Single: 52.5% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T03:38:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.8% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.4% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-09-08T03:38:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.7% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:26+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00IFS HRES: 56.1% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00IFS HRES: 43.8% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00ICON: 81.4% · 2026-09-08T03:38:26+00:00ICON: 81.4% · 2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:00ICON: 81.4% · 2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:00ICON: 81.4% · 2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:00ICON: 81.4% · 2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:0009-08 03:3809-08 08:5409-08 14:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-08T03:38:26+00:0041.4%59.8%75.8%56.1%81.4%
2026-09-08T04:23:31+00:0041.4%59.8%75.8%56.1%81.4%
2026-09-08T05:08:36+00:0041.4%59.8%65.0%56.1%81.4%
2026-09-08T05:53:40+00:0041.4%59.8%65.0%56.1%81.4%
2026-09-08T06:38:45+00:0041.4%59.8%65.0%56.1%81.4%
2026-09-08T07:23:55+00:0052.5%59.8%65.0%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T08:09:00+00:0052.5%59.8%65.0%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T08:54:04+00:0052.5%59.8%65.0%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T09:39:09+00:0052.5%59.8%65.0%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T10:24:13+00:0052.5%57.4%65.0%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T11:09:19+00:0052.5%57.4%78.7%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T11:54:24+00:0052.5%57.4%78.7%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T12:39:28+00:0052.5%57.4%78.7%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T13:24:33+00:0051.7%57.4%78.7%43.8%3.9%
2026-09-08T14:09:38+00:0051.7%57.4%78.8%43.8%4.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 279%——Not retained0.6209
IFS Ensemble57%——Not retained0.3295
NWS forecast55%——Not retained0.2970
AIFS Single52%——Not retained0.2673
IFS HRES44%——Not retained0.1918
National Blend31%——Not retained0.0961
ICON4%——Not retained0.0016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20260912-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗