KBIL / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 08 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

57%

52%

44%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

ICONNO 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.60u · ICON −58.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	44.7%	—	—	98.9%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	98.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	98.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	99.9%	—	—	90.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	88.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	3.1%	11.5%	—	82.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	1.0%	58.0%	—	51.5%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	40.2%	97.0%	98.2%	—	35.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	72.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	14.5%	81.1%	39.0%	—	35.2%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	73.5%	69.2%	94.9%	—	55.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.2%	26.0%	—	—	25.3%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	2.1%	47.4%	37.1%	—	26.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	58.9%	34.2%	—	—	42.9%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	13.9%	45.4%	89.8%	—	47.2%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	8.8%	2.1%	—	—	34.3%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.1%	2.7%	87.9%	—	47.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	0.4%	0.8%	—	—	58.9%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	2.6%	17.0%	90.6%	—	59.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	6.8%	39.5%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	15.5%	31.1%	62.9%	27.3%	63.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	20.6%	25.8%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.0%	46.5%	61.5%	68.0%	60.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	8.7%	57.2%	22.5%	—	51.2%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	8.9%	43.8%	28.7%	28.7%	37.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	31.4%	66.3%	48.7%	—	38.5%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	29.5%	74.9%	68.1%	0.0%	35.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	48.6%	79.9%	78.9%	—	48.6%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	48.5%	82.8%	70.7%	38.6%	37.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	27.2%	77.6%	81.9%	—	48.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	30.3%	75.0%	86.6%	13.4%	48.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	38.6%	64.5%	69.0%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	—	—	Not retained	0.6209
IFS Ensemble	57%	—	—	Not retained	0.3295
NWS forecast	55%	—	—	Not retained	0.2970
AIFS Single	52%	—	—	Not retained	0.2673
IFS HRES	44%	—	—	Not retained	0.1918
National Blend	31%	—	—	Not retained	0.0961
ICON	4%	—	—	Not retained	0.0016

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20260912-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 08 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗