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KBIL / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 14:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
89%
AIFS
77%
ICON
66%
WN2
62%
EPS
52%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 70.7¢Risks 70.70u
VS
EPSNO 29.3¢Risks 29.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.30u · EPS −29.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-10-01T03:11:50+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-10-01T03:57:05+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:00AIFS Single: 78.6% · 2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-01T07:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-01T08:28:47+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-01T09:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-01T09:58:56+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-01T10:44:01+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-01T11:29:19+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-01T12:14:31+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-10-01T12:59:36+00:00AIFS Single: 77.1% · 2026-10-01T13:44:53+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-10-01T14:33:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T03:11:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T03:57:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T07:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T08:28:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T09:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T09:58:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 34.6% · 2026-10-01T10:44:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-10-01T11:29:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-10-01T12:14:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-10-01T12:59:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-10-01T13:44:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.3% · 2026-10-01T14:33:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.6% · 2026-10-01T03:11:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.6% · 2026-10-01T03:57:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.6% · 2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-01T07:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-01T08:28:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-01T09:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-01T09:58:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.0% · 2026-10-01T10:44:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.5% · 2026-10-01T11:29:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.5% · 2026-10-01T12:14:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.5% · 2026-10-01T12:59:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.5% · 2026-10-01T13:44:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.5% · 2026-10-01T14:33:01+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-10-01T03:11:50+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-10-01T03:57:05+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:00IFS HRES: 91.3% · 2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T07:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T08:28:47+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T09:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T09:58:56+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T10:44:01+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T11:29:19+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T12:14:31+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T12:59:36+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T13:44:53+00:00IFS HRES: 89.1% · 2026-10-01T14:33:01+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T03:11:50+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T03:57:05+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T07:43:22+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T08:28:47+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T09:13:52+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T09:58:56+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T10:44:01+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T11:29:19+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T12:14:31+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T12:59:36+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T13:44:53+00:00ICON: 66.5% · 2026-10-01T14:33:01+00:0010-01 03:1110-01 09:1310-01 14:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-01T14:33:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-01T03:11:50+00:0078.6%34.6%55.6%91.3%66.5%
2026-10-01T03:57:05+00:0078.6%34.6%55.6%91.3%66.5%
2026-10-01T04:42:11+00:0078.6%34.6%55.6%91.3%66.5%
2026-10-01T05:27:16+00:0078.6%34.6%60.0%91.3%66.5%
2026-10-01T06:12:21+00:0078.6%34.6%60.0%91.3%66.5%
2026-10-01T06:57:26+00:0078.6%34.6%60.0%91.3%66.5%
2026-10-01T07:43:22+00:0076.4%34.6%60.0%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T08:28:47+00:0076.4%34.6%60.0%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T09:13:52+00:0076.4%34.6%60.0%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T09:58:56+00:0076.4%34.6%60.0%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T10:44:01+00:0076.4%34.6%60.0%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T11:29:19+00:0076.4%52.3%62.5%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T12:14:31+00:0076.4%52.3%62.5%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T12:59:36+00:0076.4%52.3%62.5%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T13:44:53+00:0077.1%52.3%62.5%89.1%66.5%
2026-10-01T14:33:01+00:0077.2%52.3%62.5%89.1%66.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES89%81.1°F3.7°F2026-10-01 00:000.0119
AIFS Single77%79.5°F4.0°F2026-10-01 06:000.0520
National Blend68%78.0°F3.3°F2026-10-01 06:000.1050
ICON66%78.0°F3.5°F2026-09-30 12:000.1122
WeatherNext 262%77.6°F3.5°F2026-10-01 00:000.1406
NWS forecast56%77.0°F3.1°F2026-10-01 02:000.1901
IFS Ensemble52%76.8°F5.2°F2026-10-01 00:000.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261002-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗