KBIL / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

77%

66%

62%

52%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 70.7¢Risks 70.70u

EPSNO 29.3¢Risks 29.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +29.30u · EPS −29.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	67.6%	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	0.3%	—	—	16.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	26.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	25.4%	19.9%	79.0%	—	31.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	22.8%	64.9%	67.7%	—	37.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	84.6%	90.3%	96.4%	—	42.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	67.8%	12.9%	80.5%	—	67.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.3%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	40.5%	65.4%	94.1%	—	42.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	40.2%	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	69.5%	0.1%	12.9%	—	19.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	79.0%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	56.8%	2.3%	0.1%	—	9.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	1.5%	7.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	0.1%	21.9%	64.1%	49.0%	20.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.0%	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	1.1%	46.7%	24.7%	0.0%	48.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	55.6%	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	71.0%	89.0%	83.2%	69.0%	85.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	74.7%	86.1%	92.2%	—	88.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	86.3%	95.1%	94.5%	84.9%	86.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	69.8%	98.2%	97.4%	—	84.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	73.9%	97.8%	93.9%	80.9%	85.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	73.5%	96.8%	77.9%	—	84.5%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	74.4%	96.8%	78.8%	72.0%	87.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	76.4%	98.0%	91.4%	—	82.8%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	77.4%	97.8%	91.7%	72.4%	80.8%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	77.2%	95.9%	93.2%	—	85.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	89%	81.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0119
AIFS Single	77%	79.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 06:00	0.0520
National Blend	68%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-01 06:00	0.1050
ICON	66%	78.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1122
WeatherNext 2	62%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.1406
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	52%	76.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.2275

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261002-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗