KBIL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

70%

62%

58%

39%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

EPSNO 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.65u · EPS −43.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	3.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	46.2%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	26.2%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	0.4%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	64.4%	1.9%	0.0%	—	57.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	44.2%	69.0%	—	65.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	51.5%	57.6%	73.0%	—	61.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	42.1%	52.4%	77.6%	—	60.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	43.4%	56.6%	66.2%	—	69.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	7.5%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	43.9%	47.4%	68.6%	—	73.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	48.2%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	68.6%	65.3%	76.3%	—	77.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	63.9%	69.1%	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	50.0%	72.1%	71.3%	—	81.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	51.0%	74.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	63.1%	78.1%	77.3%	—	87.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	71.2%	80.2%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	66.9%	81.0%	80.2%	0.0%	92.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	62.2%	72.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	64.8%	73.0%	83.2%	—	94.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	82.5%	75.6%	85.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	81.8%	76.4%	84.9%	58.7%	95.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	73.1%	75.2%	85.0%	—	96.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	70.5%	73.9%	89.3%	65.7%	96.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	87.5%	78.9%	87.5%	—	97.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	97.7%	77.8%	90.5%	70.7%	98.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	98.7%	87.2%	95.2%	—	98.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	98.2%	84.8%	96.6%	81.9%	98.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	99.0%	90.8%	96.9%	—	99.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	74.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0708
WeatherNext 2	70%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0918
ICON	62%	72.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1444
AIFS Single	58%	71.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.1756
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3136
IFS Ensemble	39%	69.3°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.3684

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261017-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗