KBIL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

70%

62%

58%

39%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

EPSNO 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.65u · EPS −43.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00	68.0%	36.7%	62.0%	68.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	68.0%	36.7%	62.0%	68.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	68.0%	36.7%	62.0%	68.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	68.0%	36.7%	62.0%	68.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	68.0%	36.7%	62.0%	68.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T07:32:37+00:00	69.5%	36.7%	62.0%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	69.5%	36.7%	62.0%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	69.5%	36.7%	62.0%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	69.5%	36.7%	62.0%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T10:34:17+00:00	69.5%	36.7%	62.0%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00	69.5%	31.1%	60.4%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	69.5%	31.1%	60.4%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	69.5%	31.1%	60.4%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	68.9%	31.1%	60.4%	57.8%	74.9%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	68.2%	31.4%	60.4%	57.9%	74.9%
2026-10-12T04:01:57+00:00	47.7%	29.5%	52.6%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	47.7%	29.5%	52.6%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	47.7%	29.5%	64.6%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	47.7%	29.5%	64.6%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	47.7%	29.5%	64.6%	63.1%	70.1%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	51.6%	29.5%	64.6%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	51.6%	29.5%	64.6%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	51.6%	29.5%	64.6%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	51.6%	29.5%	64.6%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	51.6%	29.5%	64.6%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	51.6%	29.5%	60.7%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	51.6%	48.2%	60.7%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	51.6%	48.2%	60.7%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	52.4%	48.2%	60.7%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	52.4%	48.2%	60.6%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	52.4%	48.2%	60.6%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	52.4%	39.3%	60.6%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	52.4%	39.3%	62.5%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	52.4%	39.3%	62.5%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	52.4%	39.3%	62.5%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	52.4%	39.3%	62.5%	64.2%	60.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	55.7%	39.3%	62.5%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	55.7%	39.3%	62.5%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	55.7%	39.3%	62.5%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	55.7%	39.3%	62.5%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	55.7%	39.3%	69.7%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	55.7%	39.3%	69.7%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	55.7%	39.3%	69.7%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	55.7%	39.3%	69.7%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	58.1%	39.3%	69.7%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	58.1%	39.3%	69.7%	73.4%	62.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	58.1%	39.3%	69.7%	73.4%	62.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	74.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0708
WeatherNext 2	70%	72.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0918
ICON	62%	72.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1444
AIFS Single	58%	71.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.1756
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3136
IFS Ensemble	39%	69.3°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.3684

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261017-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 11 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗