KBIL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

60%

56%

49%

32%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +41.60u · ICON −41.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:23+00:00	41.9%	23.4%	51.0%	60.9%	48.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	41.9%	23.4%	49.0%	60.9%	48.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	41.9%	23.4%	49.0%	60.9%	48.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	41.9%	23.4%	49.0%	60.9%	48.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	41.9%	23.4%	49.0%	60.9%	48.6%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	43.1%	23.4%	49.0%	63.3%	40.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	43.1%	23.4%	49.0%	63.3%	40.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	43.1%	23.4%	49.0%	63.3%	40.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	43.1%	23.4%	49.0%	63.3%	40.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	43.1%	33.4%	50.0%	63.3%	40.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	43.1%	33.4%	50.0%	63.3%	40.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	43.1%	33.4%	50.0%	63.3%	40.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	43.1%	33.4%	50.0%	63.3%	40.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	56.0%	33.5%	50.0%	63.3%	41.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	56.0%	32.7%	50.0%	63.3%	41.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:04+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	63.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	71.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T10:34:34+00:00	49.1%	32.7%	45.7%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	49.1%	40.6%	45.3%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	49.1%	40.6%	45.3%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	49.1%	40.6%	45.3%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	45.4%	40.6%	45.3%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	45.4%	40.7%	45.3%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	45.4%	42.3%	45.3%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	45.4%	42.3%	45.3%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	45.4%	42.3%	45.3%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	45.4%	42.3%	46.5%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	45.4%	42.3%	46.5%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	45.4%	42.3%	46.5%	74.9%	37.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	53.7%	42.3%	46.5%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	53.7%	42.3%	46.5%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	53.7%	42.3%	46.5%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	53.7%	42.3%	46.5%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	53.7%	42.3%	46.5%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	53.7%	42.3%	59.4%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	53.7%	42.3%	59.4%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	53.7%	42.3%	59.4%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	52.8%	42.3%	59.4%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	52.8%	42.3%	59.4%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	52.8%	42.3%	59.4%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:35+00:00	52.8%	42.3%	59.4%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	52.8%	42.3%	59.4%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	52.8%	42.3%	66.1%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	52.8%	42.3%	66.1%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	52.8%	42.3%	66.1%	76.3%	50.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00	48.0%	42.3%	66.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	48.0%	42.3%	66.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	48.0%	42.3%	66.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	48.0%	42.3%	66.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	48.0%	42.3%	65.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	48.0%	42.3%	65.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	48.0%	54.0%	65.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	48.0%	54.0%	65.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	39.3%	53.9%	65.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	39.3%	53.9%	65.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	39.3%	54.8%	65.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	39.3%	54.8%	65.1%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	39.3%	54.8%	58.9%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	39.3%	54.8%	58.9%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	39.3%	54.8%	58.9%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	39.3%	54.8%	58.9%	82.9%	42.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	45.1%	54.8%	58.9%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	45.1%	54.8%	58.9%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	45.1%	54.8%	58.9%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	45.1%	54.8%	58.9%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	45.1%	54.8%	67.4%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	45.1%	54.8%	67.4%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	45.1%	54.8%	67.4%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	51.0%	54.8%	67.4%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	51.0%	54.8%	67.4%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	51.0%	54.8%	67.4%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	51.0%	54.8%	67.4%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:58+00:00	51.0%	54.8%	67.4%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	51.0%	54.8%	87.1%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	51.0%	54.8%	87.1%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	51.0%	54.8%	87.1%	85.8%	38.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	42.0%	54.8%	87.1%	85.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	42.0%	54.8%	87.1%	85.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	42.0%	54.8%	87.1%	85.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	42.0%	54.8%	87.1%	85.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	42.0%	54.8%	87.1%	85.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	42.0%	56.2%	70.9%	85.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	42.0%	56.2%	70.9%	85.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	42.0%	56.2%	70.9%	85.8%	45.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	47.0%	56.2%	70.9%	86.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	47.0%	56.2%	70.9%	86.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	47.0%	55.4%	70.9%	86.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	47.0%	55.5%	70.9%	86.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	47.0%	55.5%	70.9%	86.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	47.0%	55.5%	76.5%	86.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	47.0%	55.5%	76.5%	86.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	47.0%	55.5%	76.5%	86.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	76.5%	86.5%	31.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	76.5%	86.5%	31.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	76.5%	86.5%	31.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	76.5%	86.5%	31.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	76.5%	85.3%	31.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	59.5%	85.3%	31.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	59.5%	85.3%	31.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	43.0%	55.5%	59.5%	85.3%	31.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	49.0%	55.5%	59.5%	85.3%	31.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	49.0%	55.5%	59.5%	85.3%	31.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	49.0%	55.5%	59.5%	85.3%	31.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	49.0%	55.5%	59.5%	85.3%	31.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0216
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1640
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	56%	73.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1980
AIFS Single	49%	72.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2601
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3136
ICON	32%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4692

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗