KBIL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

60%

56%

49%

32%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.4¢Risks 58.40u

ICONNO 41.6¢Risks 41.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +41.60u · ICON −41.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	34.1%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	16.8%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	50.7%	0.8%	0.0%	—	43.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	30.4%	55.1%	—	51.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	36.5%	42.4%	59.1%	—	46.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	27.4%	36.7%	64.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	27.9%	40.1%	50.0%	—	53.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	3.1%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	27.7%	30.7%	51.7%	—	57.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	31.0%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	50.9%	47.2%	60.0%	—	61.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	45.3%	50.9%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	31.3%	53.9%	52.9%	—	66.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	31.7%	56.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	42.8%	60.2%	59.2%	—	73.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	51.1%	62.5%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	45.6%	62.9%	61.8%	0.0%	81.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	40.0%	51.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	41.9%	51.2%	64.8%	—	85.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	63.0%	53.6%	67.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	61.1%	53.7%	65.8%	34.2%	85.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	48.7%	51.3%	65.1%	—	87.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	44.6%	48.7%	71.6%	39.4%	86.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	67.5%	54.2%	67.5%	—	88.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	89.8%	51.4%	72.0%	42.8%	91.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	93.0%	64.8%	81.9%	—	91.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	90.4%	59.4%	84.8%	54.7%	90.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	93.2%	69.0%	85.0%	—	94.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0216
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1640
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	56%	73.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1980
AIFS Single	49%	72.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2601
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3136
ICON	32%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4692

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261017-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗