KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

71%

67%

67%

23%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.0¢Risks 60.95u

ICONNO 39.0¢Risks 39.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.05u · ICON −39.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	5.3%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	84.3%	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	87.7%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	95.8%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	83.8%	90.7%	17.5%	—	85.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	39.2%	92.1%	74.6%	—	83.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	92.7%	56.1%	78.9%	—	83.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	33.7%	45.2%	37.5%	—	71.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	40.9%	30.8%	68.5%	—	74.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	27.4%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	46.5%	37.1%	57.8%	—	63.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	15.0%	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	38.2%	27.4%	68.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	21.7%	42.5%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	33.9%	51.0%	56.8%	—	61.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	43.0%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	26.8%	58.2%	47.9%	—	66.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	14.4%	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	10.9%	32.1%	53.3%	—	69.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	14.1%	35.7%	0.3%	—	69.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	16.8%	35.2%	40.8%	—	55.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	20.8%	34.7%	42.8%	—	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	18.2%	42.6%	40.1%	56.2%	55.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	47.4%	53.9%	48.7%	—	57.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	33.1%	56.7%	65.7%	66.9%	51.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	28.8%	51.4%	59.7%	—	51.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	54.3%	57.2%	57.2%	74.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	66.2%	61.9%	84.7%	—	82.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	57.9%	75.0%	83.9%	66.8%	72.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	70.5%	73.3%	89.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	73.5°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	71%	63.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0829
WeatherNext 2	67%	62.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1076
IFS HRES	67%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1116
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
ICON	23%	58.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5929

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗