KBIL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

71%

67%

67%

23%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.0¢Risks 60.95u

ICONNO 39.0¢Risks 39.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.05u · ICON −39.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:35+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	56.4%	69.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	56.4%	69.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	54.3%	69.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	54.3%	69.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	57.8%	99.0%	54.3%	69.8%	53.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00	62.8%	99.0%	54.3%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	62.8%	99.0%	54.3%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	62.8%	99.0%	54.3%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	62.8%	99.0%	54.3%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	62.8%	99.0%	54.7%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	62.8%	99.0%	54.7%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	62.8%	99.4%	54.7%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	62.8%	99.4%	54.7%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	61.0%	99.4%	54.7%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	61.0%	99.4%	54.7%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	61.0%	99.5%	54.7%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	61.0%	99.5%	54.7%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	61.0%	99.5%	59.4%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	61.0%	99.5%	59.4%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	61.0%	99.5%	59.4%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	61.0%	99.5%	59.4%	74.9%	40.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	59.4%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	59.4%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	59.4%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	59.4%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	54.7%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	54.7%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	54.7%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	54.7%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	54.7%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	54.7%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	54.7%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:58+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	54.7%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	63.9%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	63.9%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	59.2%	99.5%	63.9%	71.2%	33.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	64.4%	99.5%	63.9%	71.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	64.4%	99.5%	63.9%	71.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	64.4%	99.5%	63.9%	71.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	64.4%	99.5%	63.9%	71.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	64.4%	99.5%	63.9%	71.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	64.4%	99.4%	62.6%	71.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	64.4%	99.4%	62.6%	71.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	64.4%	99.4%	62.6%	71.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	69.7%	99.4%	62.6%	77.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	62.6%	77.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	62.6%	77.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	62.6%	77.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	62.6%	77.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	73.0%	77.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	73.0%	77.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	73.0%	77.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	65.3%	99.3%	73.0%	77.5%	15.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	65.3%	99.3%	73.0%	77.5%	15.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	65.3%	99.3%	73.0%	77.5%	15.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	65.3%	99.3%	73.0%	77.5%	15.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	65.3%	99.3%	73.0%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	65.3%	99.3%	66.3%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	65.3%	99.3%	66.3%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	65.3%	99.3%	66.3%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	66.3%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	66.3%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	66.3%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	66.3%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:28+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	66.3%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	74.1%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	74.1%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	69.7%	99.3%	74.1%	66.1%	15.5%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	72.0%	99.3%	74.1%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	72.0%	99.3%	74.1%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	72.0%	99.3%	74.1%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	72.0%	99.3%	74.1%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	72.0%	99.3%	74.1%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	72.0%	99.0%	75.4%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	72.0%	99.0%	75.4%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	72.0%	99.0%	75.4%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	74.5%	99.0%	75.4%	63.7%	11.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	74.5%	98.8%	75.4%	63.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	74.5%	98.9%	75.4%	63.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	74.5%	98.9%	75.4%	63.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	74.5%	98.9%	73.2%	63.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	74.5%	98.9%	73.2%	63.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	74.5%	98.9%	73.2%	63.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	74.5%	98.9%	73.2%	63.7%	11.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	72.9%	98.9%	73.2%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	72.9%	98.9%	73.2%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	72.9%	98.9%	73.2%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	72.9%	98.9%	73.2%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	72.9%	98.9%	68.5%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	72.9%	98.9%	68.5%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	72.9%	98.9%	68.5%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	72.9%	98.9%	68.5%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	71.2%	98.9%	68.5%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	71.2%	98.9%	68.5%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	71.2%	98.9%	68.5%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:41+00:00	71.2%	98.9%	68.5%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	71.2%	98.9%	67.2%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	71.2%	98.9%	67.2%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	71.2%	98.9%	67.2%	66.6%	23.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	71.2%	98.9%	67.2%	66.6%	23.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	73.5°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	71%	63.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0829
WeatherNext 2	67%	62.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1076
IFS HRES	67%	63.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1116
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	41%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
ICON	23%	58.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5929

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗